Integrated circuit ushered in the strongest policy ten years

According to the website of the Ministry of Science and Technology, in 2014, a special business retreat for "Very Large Scale Integrated Circuit Manufacturing Equipment and Complete Processes" was held in Beijing. At the meeting, the general group proposed a special project. Since its implementation, China has made some breakthroughs in the fields of high-end equipment for integrated circuits, complete sets of processes, key materials, packaging and testing. Mass purchase, successful mass production of complete set of 40-nanometer process, complete integration of lithography machine and technical level of parts and components, rapid upgrade of packaging and testing industry, special achievements in radiation-related industrial applications.

In this regard, analysts said that at present, China's integrated circuit industry is in a period of rapid growth, the relevant sector is expected to become a white horse concentration camp. On the one hand, the rapid development and popularization of 4G, financial IC card, mobile payment and other industries have provided huge space for the future growth of the industry's demand; on the other hand, as an important part of leading the future industrial development, related industries have also ushered in various levels of government Strong support.

From the perspective of market performance, among the 8 listed companies with integrated circuit design capabilities in Shanghai and Shenzhen yesterday, 7 companies' stocks rose. Among them, recently, Wanlida, which has just transformed into integrated circuit concept stocks, harvested the first Three one-day limit. In addition, Shanghai Belling, Datang Telecom, National Technology, Beijing Junzheng and other stocks all have good gains. With the upward flow of funds, Shanghai Belling, Datang Telecom, National Technology and other three stocks were favored by big single funds.

It is worth mentioning that the development of the integrated circuit industry has also become one of the key tasks of China in 2014. Specifically, in the government work report made by Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council this year, the key work in 2014 clearly stated in the “supporting and leading the optimization and upgrading of the economic structure with innovation” section, “establishing an entrepreneurial innovation platform for emerging industries. "Integrated circuits, big data, advanced manufacturing, new energy, new materials, etc. surpass advanced, leading the future industrial development."

In addition, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently issued a "Review and Outlook for the Development of the Integrated Circuit Industry in 2013", which also pointed out that the overall recovery of China's integrated circuit industry was strong in 2013, and the operating efficiency has been greatly improved. The report predicts that the overall situation of China's integrated circuit industry in 2014 is better than that in 2013, and integrated circuit design will remain the highlight of the industry's growth, with the industry growth rate expected to reach more than 15%. Judging from the company's performance, according to the annual report performance announcement disclosure, the above-mentioned companies have three performance pre-happiness. Among them, Silanwei and Tongfang Guoxin are expected to double their net profit growth in 2013.

Regarding the investment opportunities in the industry, Guangzhou Securities is even more optimistic that the IC has ushered in the strongest policy for ten years, and the industry's explosive growth opportunities are at hand. Specifically, the broker said that the support policies for the integrated circuit industry have been continuously introduced in the past six months. From the perspective of national policy support, the establishment of local equity investment funds, and the integration of resources by state-owned enterprises, the integrated circuit industry has ushered in the largest policy in the past decade Support efforts, and the industry itself will fully enjoy the opportunities brought by the development of emerging industries such as national information security, information benefit projects, 4G license issuance, increased environmental protection and energy conservation, and the automotive Internet of Things. Explosive growth is in sight. For individual stocks, recommend National Technology, Tongfang Guoxin, Changdian Technology, etc.

National technology: market-oriented mechanism gradually rationalized

National Technology is a major domestic smart card chip manufacturer. The company's existing three types of product lines include: security products, including U-key, social security cards, financial IC card chips, etc .; communications products, including TD-LTE radio frequency chips and terminal products, PA, etc .; and mobile payment products .

After China Huada transferred its equity to natural persons and asset management companies, the problem of competition among the three card chip manufacturers of China Huada, Shanghai Huahong, and National Technology, which was formerly a subsidiary of CLP Group, was resolved. In addition, the marketization mechanism began to rationalize. The future Development will be more flexible and smooth.

As financial security is increasingly on the agenda and the implementation of the central bank is increasing, financial IC cards have entered an explosive period; and with the maturity of UnionPay standards and the success of commercial bank domestic chip card pilots, the localization of financial IC card chips will be The general trend is that the policy requiring mandatory adoption of the UnionPay standard (that is, the localization of financial IC card chips) will not be released later than 2015.

Domestic IC card chip design manufacturers mainly include Tongfang Microelectronics, CLP Huada, Huahong, Datang Telecom, Fudan Microelectronics and National Technology, etc. Due to financial IC cards' requirements for security standards and interfaces, etc. High, high research and development costs, and difficult technology development, therefore, there are not many chip manufacturers that are truly capable of entering the financial IC card market. Currently, manufacturers with higher evaluations in card merchant evaluations and bank pilots include Tongfang Guoxin and National Technology.

National Technology has made a large amount of R & D investment in the field of financial IC card chips. The company is among the most advanced card chip manufacturers in terms of chip technology strength, EMVco and UnionPay standard certification, and smart card manufacturer evaluation. At present, the company's financial IC card chip has passed EMVco certification and UnionPay standard certification, and basically has the qualifications for domestic listing. At present, the company is collaborating with downstream card manufacturers such as Dongxin Heping, Jinbangda, Tianyu Information, etc. for inspection. The domestic bank started the test work and laid the foundation for future large-scale commercial use. It is expected that the company will be one of the important participants in domestic financial IC card chips in the future.

In addition, the company has deep accumulation in the fields of TD-LED RF chips and terminals, PA, mobile payment, and trusted computing. It is expected that these products will become new growth points in the future.

As for the old product U-key, since six or seven domestic card chip manufacturers have entered this market and competition is becoming increasingly fierce, we expect that the company ’s U-key product sales revenue will remain stable or decline slightly due to the continuous product line The preliminary dilution of upgrade and R & D costs is expected to basically maintain this part of the profit. In addition to the aforementioned new product volume, future growth is expected.

After calculation, we estimate that from 2013 to 2015, the company will achieve revenues of 434 million yuan, 689 million yuan, and 956 million yuan, corresponding to net profits of 4.68 million yuan, 108 million yuan, and 242 million yuan, and EPS of 0.02, 0.40, and 0.89 yuan, corresponding to 2014, The valuation in 2015 is 72 and 32. Considering that the chip design companies in the same industry have higher valuations, and the company's operating inflection points are beginning to appear. Higher short-term valuations are acceptable and they are recommended.

Li Keqiang is concerned about the integrated circuit industry

At the second meeting of this year ’s 12th National People ’s Congress, Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council made a government work report, summarizing the overall operation of China in 2013 and deploying key tasks in 2014. We can grasp some future trends and trends concerning industry and enterprises through the interpretation of Prime Minister Keqiang ’s government work report. During the two sessions, Premier Li Keqiang encouraged the innovation and development of e-commerce, and promoted the rapid development of industries such as mobile integrated circuit data and new energy.

Encourage e-commerce innovation and development of integrated circuits will catch up with advanced

In 2013, China's total information consumption reached 2.2 trillion, a year-on-year increase of more than 28%. In the three years after the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", China's information consumption will reach an average annual growth rate of more than 20%. Once speculated that by 2015, China's information consumption will exceed 3.2 trillion yuan. With the continuous impact of the Internet on the industry and the continuous growth of China's information consumption, the government work report this year also proposed to promote information consumption.

In his work report, Premier Li Keqiang pointed out that to promote information consumption, implement the "Broadband China" strategy, accelerate the development of fourth-generation mobile communications, promote urban 100M fiber optic projects and broadband rural projects, greatly increase Internet speed, and implement the "three "Network integration" to encourage the development of e-commerce innovation.

From an industrial point of view, the report stated that "the establishment of an entrepreneurial innovation platform for emerging industries will surpass the advanced in new-generation mobile communications, integrated circuits, big data, advanced manufacturing, new energy, new materials, and lead the future industrial development." "Insist on achieving the survival of the fittest through market competition, encouraging enterprises to merge and reorganize. For industries with severe overcapacity, strengthen environmental protection, energy consumption, technology and other standards, clean up various preferential policies, digest a batch of stocks, and strictly control the new increase."